Dry weather blog: 2026

Updates about dry weather in 2026

16 July 2026

Prolonged dry weather status declared for north and south-east Wales.

Our status

Wales is currently experiencing a period of prolonged dry weather that is being escalated by heatwaves across parts of Wales. As a result we have decided to move catchments within north Wales, upper Severn and south-east Wales from 'Normal' to 'Prolonged Dry Weather' status.

‘Prolonged Dry Weather' means that hydrological indicators demonstrate prolonged low flow rivers, lowering groundwater levels and reduced rainfall for the time of year. Other indicators show reduced soil moisture, increased reports of impacts to ecosystems, land, water supply and other sectors. The decision to change to this status across parts of Wales is based on reaching most of these indicators and emerging concerns for the environment and land management. 

Our decision has been shared with the Wales Drought Liaison Group, chaired by the Welsh Government and made up of senior decision-makers from NRW, the Met Office, water companies and other partners.

The areas affected by today’s change in status within Wales are:

- Dee (Wales)
- Clwyd
- Upper Severn
- North Gwynedd (Conwy, Anglesey, Arfon, Dwyfor)
- South Gwynedd (Meirionydd)
- Wye (Wales)
- Usk
- Valleys (Taff, Ebbw, Rhymney, Ely)
- Vale of Glamorgan (Thaw)

We are engaging closely with the Environment Agency in respect to the cross border catchments.  The latest position can be found on the gov.uk website.

Water Situation

As of 16 July 2026, July so far has seen no or very little rainfall across the Welsh catchments at only 0-10% of the July Long Term Average (LTA) (1981-2010). This follows a drier than average April-June 2026 three month period where cumulative Wales rainfall was 86% of that expected for that time of the year.

Whilst parts of Wales received rainfall over the past three months some catchments, especially in north-east Wales, received below average rainfall.

The lack of rainfall, exacerbated by the recent heatwaves, has meant that the majority of rivers across Wales are now lower than expected for the time of year.  Some rivers are exceptionally low such as Clwyd, Alwen, Alyn, Clywedog, Dyfi, Conwy, and the Wye.

River regulation is operating to support flows including on the Dee, Severn, Clwyd and the Wye.  Almost half of the flow in the lower Wye is currently being sustained by releases from the Elan Reservoir, highlighting the extent of natural flow depletion.  

River temperatures have been at or above 20ºC, including the Wye and Usk which have peaked at over 26ºC. Groundwater levels are also falling across Wales, with some boreholes lower than expected for time of year.  Soils are currently dry or well below field capacity (COSMOS).

Concerns

We are concerned about the pressures the lack of significant rainfall and hot temperatures has placed, and will continue to place, on groundwater levels, rivers, salmon welfare, fish migration, wildlife, land NRW manages and the wider natural environment across Wales.

We are starting to see/receive reports of dry riverbeds such as Dulas and Gallen in North Wales, fish in distress and fish kills, widespread wildfires and abstraction licence low flow restrictions coming into force.

There are also concerns for protected sites such as fens, peatlands, heath and grasslands which are home to many species. 

The impact of the heat is also being felt in the countryside, leading to a major incident declared last weekend following a number of devastating wildfires in north Wales. 

Our response and advice

Our drought teams across Wales will meet regularly and will now follow the 'Prolonged Dry Weather' actions within our drought plan for these areas of Wales. We will also review the position within these areas and in other parts of Wales (Southwest) and report any change of status accordingly.

Our teams have enhanced monitoring, increased checks in important locations and will respond to incidents on the ground in accordance with our procedures. Not all reports need a site visit. We use evidence, expert judgement, and data to decide how best to respond. 

Abstraction constraints are in place across Wales in line with licences. Regulation schemes including the Dee and Wye are operating in line with agreements with water companies, NRW and other regulators. 

We will continue to engage with the Wales Drought Liaison Group, the Environment Agency (to discuss shared catchments), water companies and other partners.

We advise fisheries and anglers to take extra care when fishing for salmon in high temperatures, and to stop where water temperatures reach 20 degrees Celsius.  

We are providing support to fire and rescue services to tackle wildfires.  If you see a wildfire, get to a safe place, call 999 and ask for the Fire Service.

We urge farmers to follow the advice provided on our website  if any concerns with dry weather. 

‘Let’s Save Water’ was launched across England and Wales – backed by regulators and water companies. Visit www.letssavewater.cymru for information and advice about water saving.

When enjoying the outdoors, please be mindful that wildlife and ecosystems are under more stress. Members of the public should report any environment incidents to the NRW 24/7 hotline on 0300 065 3000.

See our advice and Public Health Wales’ about entering water this summer.  

Outlook

The forecast is for continued dry weather over the coming week. We are particularly concerned about conditions in the Clwyd, Dee and Upper Severn catchments, without any notable and sustained rainfall this would lead to these catchments reaching drought status faster than previous years.  

How we define drought

While there are differing levels scales and definitions of drought, all droughts are characterised by some degree of rainfall shortage. Each drought is different with the nature, timing and impacts varying according to location and which sectors are affected. We define three types of drought (which can occur together):

• Environmental drought – low flows and reduced soil moisture impacting a range of habitats and species. Droughts of this kind can lead to significant long-term impacts if they continue over an extended period.
• Agricultural drought – lack of water available for irrigation and reduced soil moisture impacting crop yield (and / or quality) and livestock welfare.
• Water supply – reduced availability of water for public supply through reduced river flows, reservoir storage or groundwater.

Any combination of these also has the potential to impact on the health and well-being of people in addition to environmental and economic impacts.

Part of our job is to monitor the hydrological and ecological situation, monitor and regulate water companies and collect information on the wider impacts of dry weather. Using this we classify droughts into four stages:

• Normal – Indicators within expected ranges for the time of year, which can include short periods of low flows and reduced water availability.
• Prolonged dry weather – Indicators demonstrate prolonged low river levels and rainfall for time of year, reduced soil moisture, increased reports of impacts to ecosystems, land, water supply or other sectors.
• Drought – Significant period of low river levels and shortage of rainfall. Significantly impacted ecosystems and pressures on the agricultural sector. High stress on the water supply system with potentially severe restrictions.
• Recovery from prolonged dry weather and/or drought – Returning to normal ranges for the time of year. Depending on the severity of the preceding prolonged dry weather and/or drought there may still be environmental damage, reduced agricultural output or water use restrictions.

Water companies have their own drought plans which are publicly available. Their drought status may also vary.  They typically use the stages ‘normal’, ‘developing drought’, ‘drought’ and ‘severe drought’ and will use their own triggers to define their position often linked to their supply position. See water company drought plans for more information.

What we do?

Once prolonged dry weather is declared, NRW steps up its actions to help mitigate the impacts on the environment, land, water users and people. These actions include:

• Enhancing its monitoring and increasing the number of checks in important locations.
• Ensuring water companies follow their drought plans (once they are enacted) and are preparing for any additional measures as required.
• Ensuring regulation schemes are operating to support abstractions and the environment.
• Ensuring abstractors are complying with their licence conditions, many of which restrict how much can be taken during low flow periods.
• Responding to environmental incidents and taking the appropriate enforcement action as required.
• Providing advice and guidance such as dry weather advice for farmers
• Engaging with the Wales Drought Liaison Group, the Environment Agency (cross border) and other partners.

If we enter drought, our actions are stepped up again and include activities such as responding to drought permit and order applications or implementing further restrictions on water users, such as spray irrigators.